How economic events move markets
A reference guide to the recurring event types that move FX, rates, and equities -- modeled on the same event taxonomy and impact levels traders use on calendars like ForexFactory. This explains what each release measures and its typical directional effect, not a live calendar of upcoming dates.
Drives almost everything else in this app's universe -- every FX pair here is quoted against or alongside it, plus equities, metals, and the Treasury/Fed Funds markets just added.
Measures: Change in US employment excluding farm workers.
Typical effect: Strong beats → USD up (economy resilient, supports higher rates); big miss → USD down. One of the single most-watched releases across all markets, not just FX.
Measures: Headline inflation.
Typical effect: Hot CPI → USD up short-term (higher rate-hike odds), but can also hit equities/growth stocks via the discount-rate effect covered in Learn.
Measures: The Fed's own preferred inflation gauge (strips food/energy).
Typical effect: Same direction as CPI, but the Fed itself watches this one most closely -- it can move Fed-Funds-futures positioning more than CPI does.
Measures: The Fed's actual interest rate decision and forward guidance.
Typical effect: A real test of 60 FOMC statements (2018-2026) found no clean hawkish/dovish pattern against USD Index alone -- but a consistent, correct-direction effect against Treasury yields (2Y/5Y/10Y), and USD does respond correctly when other same-week economic data reinforces the Fed's tone. In short: rates react to the Fed directly; the dollar reacts more to the Fed plus everything else happening that week.
Measures: Survey of purchasing managers -- above 50 = expansion, below 50 = contraction.
Typical effect: A real-time growth read ahead of GDP. Weak prints pressure USD and risk assets together.
Measures: Overall economic growth.
Typical effect: Backward-looking (the quarter already happened), so usually less market-moving than NFP/CPI unless it's a big surprise.
Measures: New unemployment benefit claims.
Typical effect: A live, frequent read on labour-market health between the monthly NFP prints -- small individual moves, but trend matters.
Measures: Consumer spending, the biggest single component of US GDP.
Typical effect: Strong sales → USD supportive (consumer strength); watched closely around holiday periods.
Measures: Private payrolls from ADP's own payroll data.
Typical effect: Treated as an early, imperfect preview of NFP -- moves markets less on its own, more for what it implies is coming.
Central bank: European Central Bank (ECB).
Measures: Eurozone interest rate decision and Lagarde's press conference.
Typical effect: The EUR equivalent of FOMC -- biggest scheduled EUR event, especially the press conference tone.
Measures: Early estimate of eurozone-wide inflation.
Typical effect: Same logic as US CPI, drives ECB rate-path expectations.
Measures: Germany is the eurozone's largest economy -- these are closely watched sentiment surveys.
Typical effect: A leading indicator traders use to anticipate eurozone-wide PMI/GDP direction.
Central bank: Bank of England (BOE).
Measures: UK interest rate decision, often with a split vote reported (e.g. 7-2).
Typical effect: The vote split itself can move GBP as much as the decision -- a closer vote signals a more likely near-term change.
Measures: UK inflation.
Typical effect: Same CPI logic as elsewhere, drives BOE expectations.
Measures: The UK uniquely publishes GDP monthly, not just quarterly.
Typical effect: More frequent growth signal than most economies get.
Central bank: Bank of Japan (BOJ). Historically an outlier -- BOJ held rates near zero far longer than other major central banks, which is why JPY often trades on rate-differential and carry-trade dynamics more than its own data.
Measures: Bank of Japan policy decision.
Typical effect: Even small shifts move JPY sharply given how long BOJ policy stayed unchanged historically -- any hint of tightening is a bigger surprise here than for other central banks.
Measures: Tokyo-area inflation, published ahead of the national figure.
Typical effect: An early read on national CPI given Tokyo's outsized share of Japan's economy.
The "commodity currencies" in this app's universe -- their central banks (RBA, RBNZ, BOC) and data matter, but they also trade heavily on commodity prices and, for AUD/NZD, China demand data given their export ties.
Measures: Each country's own central bank decision.
Typical effect: Same rate-decision logic as USD/EUR/GBP, scaled to a smaller, more commodity-sensitive economy.
Measures: Not a domestic release, but China is the largest trading partner for Australia in particular.
Typical effect: Weak Chinese demand data can pressure AUD even with no Australian data released that day.
Measures: Each country's own jobs report, the AUD/NZD/CAD analog to NFP.
Typical effect: Same NFP-style surprise-driven reaction, just smaller in absolute market size.
Directional effects above are typical tendencies, not guarantees -- markets often price in expectations ahead of a release, so the actual reaction depends on the surprise relative to forecast, not the raw number. Same "context, not signal" caveat as the rest of this app.