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Real historical case study

Real positioning data across all 42 tracked markets, frozen as of 2022-09-20 -- the same week as Market Terminal. A real pattern in this snapshot: a broad share of markets show "reducing" campaigns around this date, consistent with the wider de-risking across markets during the 2022 Fed hiking cycle. See plans →

Historical study · Not current market data
This week, at a glance

2 of 42 tracked markets are near a historical extreme this week (COCOA, USD/MXN). The tracked book leans short overall, averaging 45% Non-Commercial long. 17 of 42 added open interest, while 19 added and 23 reduced Non-Commercial conviction. 38 of 42 tracked markets show Commercial and Non-Commercial pulling in opposite directions this week: UST 10Y, SP500, EUR/USD, +35 more.

2of 42 near a historical extreme
COCOAUSD/MXN
28reducing this week
2 Building28 Reducing3 Mature
Disaggregated/TFF basis
45%avg. Non-Commercial long lean
ShortLong
17/42tracked markets added open interest this week
19 / 23Non-Commercial adding vs reducing conviction
Recent macro releases
Retail SalesRetail Sales: -0.3% vs prior period2022-09-15
CPICPI: +0.4% vs prior period2022-09-13
NFPNonfarm Payrolls: 153,582k2022-09-02
UnemploymentUnemployment rate: 3.5%2022-09-02
Core PCECore PCE: +0.6% vs prior period2022-08-26
New this weekSOYBEANS started buildingSP500 started reducing
DivergingUST 10Y — Non-Commercial vs Commercial SP500 — Non-Commercial vs Commercial EUR/USD — Non-Commercial vs Commercial SUGAR NO. 11 — Non-Commercial vs Commercial GOLD — Non-Commercial vs Commercial +33 more
Longest runningLIVE CATTLE — 60w reducing

Reducing is the one campaign signal this project has actually validated against price (see the Stage 1 research). Building and Mature below are reference only -- descriptive, not a forecast. Campaign phase is computed on the Disaggregated/TFF classification (marked per row below) -- the same underlying position data this project validated against, even though the rest of this app now shows the Legacy classification's long/short numbers.

Reducing28 markets
+305,6770.0% off peak
+57,4110.0% off peak
-99,5390.0% off peak
-155,7110.0% off peak
+126,4700.0% off peak
+43,9540.0% off peak
-229,5900.0% off peak
+24,1640.0% off peak
+50,1150.0% off peak
+70,3670.0% off peak
-1,8140.0% off peak
-37,9030.0% off peak
-5,9410.0% off peak
-1,0810.0% off peak
+37,3450.0% off peak
+41,0720.0% off peak
+65,7220.0% off peak
+2,0560.0% off peak
-28,0330.0% off peak
-54,8430.0% off peak
-81,2800.0% off peak
+27,9310.0% off peak
+32,3690.0% off peak
+5,2200.0% off peak
-219,4510.0% off peak
+3,4850.0% off peak
-40,5560.0% off peak
-106,8380.0% off peak
Building2 markets
+17,091
+84,773
Mature3 markets
-4,029
-493,804
-342,415

Pick up to 4 markets to compare positioning and campaign context side by side. COT-only -- this doesn't generate a call.

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How long a market's positioning state has lasted, and what it's historically transitioned into. Descriptive structure, not a forecast -- these are the same states behind this app's own alert triggers.

USD/CAD -- current state
TrendBias NEUTRALConfidence 95In this state 1w (since 2023-06-27)
How long states typically last

Based on 83 completed state runs in this market's history.

StateOccurrencesAvgMedianLongest
Trend314.2w4.0w11.0w
Distribution222.6w2.0w7.0w
Accumulation142.7w3.0w6.0w
Late Crowded82.9w3.0w7.0w
Transition71.1w1.0w2.0w
Neutral Reset11.0w1.0w1.0w
What usually comes next
Trend31 transitions
Distribution52%Accumulation23%Late Crowded13%Transition13%
Distribution22 transitions
Trend77%Late Crowded18%Transition5%
Accumulation14 transitions
Trend79%Transition14%Neutral Reset7%
Late Crowded8 transitions
Distribution63%Trend38%
Transition7 transitions
Accumulation86%Distribution14%
Neutral Reset1 transitions
Accumulation100%

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